The data are mixed on voter-ID laws (separate and apart from “exact match” provisions).  A study by the National Bureau of Economics says this:

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"U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote -- an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement.  Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.3-billion-observations panel, we find the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications and cannot be attributed to mobilization against the laws, measured by campaign contributions and self-reported political engagement.  ID requirements have no effect on fraud either -- actual or perceived.  Overall, our results suggest that efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections."

 

However, there is contrary evidence from the field.  In Wisconsin, there was a drop in African American voter turnout in the 2016 presidential election, which was the first that strict voter-ID laws were implemented. 

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A survey conducted by the University of Wisconsin-Madison (funded by the Dane County Clerk’s Office) found that 11.2 percent of people eligible to vote in Dane and Milwaukee Counties did not vote because of the new law.  This represents at least 16,801 people and could be as high as 23,252 people based on the confidence interval used. 

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In Kansas, Secretary of State Kris Kobach, the former vice chairman of Donald Trump’s election integrity commission, ran for governor in 2018.  According to a study by the Government Accountability Office, a 2011 voter-ID law that he pushed for led to a 1.9 to 2.2 percentage point drop in turnout among eligible and registered voters.

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We completely understand why voter-ID laws deeply disturb the Black community.  The visceral reaction of many Black Americans to this topic is 1000% understandable given their long and painful history of disenfranchisement, in practically every aspect of their and their ancestors’ lives.

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However, the evidence to date makes this issue essentially a jump ball, since studies show that ID requirements don’t affect turnout but they have no effect on reducing potential fraud either.

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Our gut instinct is that Americans need to show some form of identification to be able to vote.  In our minds, not requiring an ID is just asking for trouble, whether real or imaginary.  Therefore, we need to make it a priority to guarantee that every single American has identification -- because voting is certainly not the only obstacle Americans who don’t have an ID face.

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Evidence:

 

Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons.  "Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-2016."  National Bureau of Economics. 
   February 2019

Kenneth R. Mayer.  "Voter ID Study Shows Turnout Effects in 2016 Wisconsin Presidential Election."  University of Wisconsin-Madison.  25 Sept 2017

Government Accountability Office.  "Issues Related to State Voter Identification Laws."  September 2014

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